If you want to know what the market’s doing right now hang tight we’re going to talk about market conditions right here in Cherokee County, Cobb County, and North Atlanta. Let’s talk about what’s going on in the market. One of the things that we keep on hearing time and time again is “there is no way that this market’s going to continue at the pace that it’s at.” and “When is the Housing Market Going to Crash“. We’ve been seeing 11, 12, 13% value increases over the last three or four years and everybody’s like, man this is a bubble it’s going to blow up.
“When is the housing market going to crash, Tom? When is the crash going to happen?”
And I’ll be honest with you even I have kind of talked about that over the last couple of years. We’ve all been kind of looking at that. But let me explain to you why there’s not going to be a housing market crash. So one of the things that we’ve got to understand is we’ve got to look at data. We got to look at statistics. So one of the things that we look at is we look at a trendline, the values of properties over ever since we’ve been recording them. So let me kind of show you on a graph.
So I think we started recording value increases probably in 1970. Don’t quote me on that but I’m going to go back quite a few years to kind of show you how this whole thing works. Over time, the trendline as far as increase in values is 4% annually. That’s the average that real estate increases over time is 4%. So what has happened is if you take a look from 1970 to now, and then I’m going to make a couple of other notes here this is going to be 2009 and we all remember what happened in 2009, right? I remember. And then we started recovering from the great recession in 2013, as far as real estate is concerned.
So historically this is kind of how it works. We were trucking along for many, many years, right on the trendline. Then all of a sudden, in 2009, we take a huge dip. And then in 2013, we started to recover until here we are today, seeing huge increases but this is where we’re at right now.
Yes, we are still below the 4% trendline.
So we still have this gap that we’re trying to make up. Okay. We’ve still got that gap in order. So, in 2009 through 13, we almost lost 50% of the home values off of this trendline. So this was like a 50% decrease. So we still have a ways to go. So the reason why I’m saying there’s not going to be a bubble we’re not going to have a bubble until we get back this line that we’re currently at is going to be back up and at least hitting that line. I don’t know when that’s going to be. The experts think we’re probably two, maybe three years away from an additional 10 to 13% increases over the next two or three years before we’re actually back on that trendline.
So anyway, that’s a huge one for most folks. We’re talking about this quite a bit. Now there’s a lot of other factors that go involved with real estate, but this is a big one. I want to make sure everybody understands that we still have this gap to make up to where we should be from the recession that we had way back in 2009.
Hopefully, this was helpful for you. So that’s the problem. So what are you going to do? Right? Here’s what you’re going to do, move. If you want to sell your house and move into a new one, do it. Don’t wait. Don’t think that this whole thing’s going to blow up and you’re going to wait for this thing to crash again down here, move, do it. Get your house sold, get into a new one. As a seller right now in this market, you are going to win. It is a crazy market. You’re going to get whatever you want out of that house. Now, obviously, there’s a ceiling to what you can actually you know get for your home, but you’re going to win. Regardless of what you’re going to do as a seller, you’re going to win. As a buyer, you better have a savvy agent on your side that’s ready to work hard for you. Don’t think that you’re going to go out and find a house on your own. Be able to secure it, get it under contract, and get all the way to the closing table successfully on your own or with limited help from a really good agent. If you’re interested in exactly how that works, hang tight ’cause that’s going to be the next video we do. But hopefully, this was helpful to just kind of give you an idea of the problem that we have and kind of debunked the fact that this thing’s going to blow up at any time and answered your question of ” When is the Housing Market Going to Crash”. We’ll talk to you guys soon, and everybody has a great day. Thanks.
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